HMT participates in the 2012 HPC Winter Weather Experiment

Researchers at HPC during the Winter Weather Experiment
Contact: Ellen Sukovich

April 13, 2012

HMT participates in the 2012 HPC Winter Weather Experiment

Ellen Sukovich, of HMT at NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory, visited the National Center for Environmental Prediction's (NCEP) Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) in Camp Springs, MD from January 29, 2012 to February 3, 2012 to participate in the 2012 Winter Weather Experiment (WWE).

Hosted by HMT-HPC scientists (Faye Barthold, Mike Bodner, and Tom Workoff) and the HPC Science and Operations Officer (SOO; Dave Novak), the WWE is a forecasting exercise that brings together HPC forecasters, research meteorologists, and other operational forecasters to participate in both real-time forecasting and subjective evaluation activities to help support improvements to HPC's winter weather forecasts. The WWE exercise provides an opportunity for critical feedback between the research and operational communities and is a demonstration of research-to-operations-research (R2O2R) within HMT.

For 2012, the experiment particularly focused on the probabilistic forecasting of winter weather by exploring methods to better quantify and communicate the uncertainty of winter weather forecasts through the evaluation of multiple experimental ensemble systems. Through a combination of experimental forecasting and model evaluation activities, WWE participants attempted to determine (a) if forecasters could add value to probabilistic winter weather forecasts, (b) how new post-processed products (e.g., clusters) could be used in the forecast process, and (c) what benefits storm-scale ensembles could provide for winter weather forecasting. In addition, participants were given the opportunity to explore how to better communicate societal impacts to non-metrological decision makers through short presentation and feedback sessions.