December 20, 2012

HMT Publication Notice

An article entitled The Coming Megafloods by Mike Dettinger and Lynn Ingram will appear in the January 2013 issue of Scientific American.

The article discusses recent advances in atmospheric-river science in a context of paleoflood studies in California. Analyses of sediments in and near the Central Valley give strong indications of past floods that were larger than any of the 20th Century that have occurred roughly every 150-300 years in the past 2000 years. These past megafloods may have been even larger than the largest historical flood, in winter of 1861-1862. During the past 60 years, the lion’s share of the largest storms and floods were fed by landfalling atmospheric rivers and so this article argues that the past megafloods probably derived from similar mechanisms. A principle conclusion from these kinds of studies is a growing recognition that megafloods are a rare but natural and recurring part of California's meteorology, hydrology, and landscape, that should be taken seriously in planning for floods and flood emergencies in the Golden State. Recent ARkStorm studies and exercises that are prompting flood- and emergency managers to prepare for very large atmospheric-river storm sequences are discussed in the article and represent one response to this recognition. Ongoing evaluations of climate-change projections (also discussed) to try to determine whether such king-sized atmospheric-river storms will become more or less likely in coming decades are another.

Dettinger, M., and Ingram, L., 2013: The Coming Megafloods. Scientific American, 308(1), 64-71.

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